Boston Marathon 2027: What Do The Numbers Say About The Chances In The Lottery?
This text is an extension of an earlier article in which I described the introduction of a lottery for 1,000 spots for runners with a qualifying time who did not exceed the cut-off. Below is a link to that piece, which forms the basis for the current analysis built on data from previous years and projections for 2027.
Remember that registration will close on September 18, 2026, and decisions will be sent out in early October 2026.
The introduction of the lottery changes the situation for runners who meet the qualifying standard but do not exceed the cut-off. Until now, they were automatically rejected. Now there is a second path into the field, which can be quantified using data from previous years.
Historical Data: How Many Qualifiers Were Rejected?
| Year | Rejected Qualifiers |
|---|---|
| 2025 | 8,887 |
| 2024 | 12,324 |
The drop from 12,324 to 8,887 rejected qualifiers was the result of tightening the qualifying standards by 5 minutes for all age groups under 60 years.
Lottery Chances: What Do 1,000 Spots Offer?
Based on data from recent years, the chance of drawing one of the 1,000 spots is around 9–10%:
- 2025: 1,000 / 8,887 ≈ 11.2%
- 2024: 1,000 / 12,324 ≈ 8.1%
The average of these two years gives roughly 9–10%.
Forecast For 2027: Possible Increase In The Number Of Qualifiers
It can be assumed that in 2027 the number of runners with a qualifying time will be higher than in 2025. If the number of qualifiers who do not make the cut-off rises to around 10–11 thousand, the lottery chance will drop slightly — to around 9%.
The new rule does not change the core of the qualification process: the fastest still get in first. However, it adds a second path for those who meet the qualifying standard but do not exceed the cut-off.
All texts and analyses related to the Boston Marathon.
