{"id":232058,"date":"2026-07-23T12:27:23","date_gmt":"2026-07-23T12:27:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/worldmarathoner.com\/?p=232058"},"modified":"2026-07-23T12:32:41","modified_gmt":"2026-07-23T12:32:41","slug":"boston-marathon-2027-what-do-the-numbers-say-about-the-chances-in-the-lottery","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/worldmarathoner.com\/en\/boston-marathon-2027-what-do-the-numbers-say-about-the-chances-in-the-lottery\/","title":{"rendered":"Boston Marathon 2027: What Do The Numbers Say About The Chances In The Lottery?"},"content":{"rendered":"<h2 style=\"text-align: left; font-family: 'Poppins',sans-serif;\"><strong>Boston Marathon 2027: What Do The Numbers Say About The Chances In The Lottery?<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p style=\"font-family: 'Poppins',sans-serif; line-height: 1.6; text-align: justify;\">This text is an extension of an earlier article in which I described the introduction of a lottery for 1,000 spots for runners with a qualifying time who did not exceed the cut-off. Below is a link to that piece, which forms the basis for the current analysis built on data from previous years and projections for 2027.<\/p>\n<div style=\"background-color: #eef3f6; border-left: 5px solid #29495e; padding: 18px 20px; margin: 24px 0; border-radius: 6px; font-family: 'Poppins',sans-serif;\"><a style=\"color: #29495e; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline; font-size: 16px;\" href=\"https:\/\/worldmarathoner.com\/en\/boston-marathon-2027-new-rule-in-the-qualification-process\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Previous Article About The New Rule<br \/>\n<\/a><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin: 10px 0 0 0; line-height: 1.6;\">Remember that registration will close on September 18, 2026, and decisions will be sent out in early October 2026.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p style=\"font-family: 'Poppins',sans-serif; line-height: 1.6; text-align: justify;\">The introduction of the lottery changes the situation for runners who meet the qualifying standard but do not exceed the cut-off. Until now, they were automatically rejected. Now there is a second path into the field, which can be quantified using data from previous years.<\/p>\n<h3 style=\"font-family: 'Poppins',sans-serif; margin-top: 24px;\"><strong>Historical Data: How Many Qualifiers Were Rejected?<\/strong><\/h3>\n<table style=\"width: 100%; border-collapse: collapse; font-family: 'Poppins',sans-serif; margin: 16px 0 24px 0; border: 1px solid #ddd;\">\n<thead>\n<tr style=\"background-color: #29495e; color: #ffffff;\">\n<th style=\"padding: 14px; text-align: left; border: 1px solid #29495e;\">Year<\/th>\n<th style=\"padding: 14px; text-align: left; border: 1px solid #29495e;\">Rejected Qualifiers<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr style=\"background-color: #eef3f6;\">\n<td style=\"padding: 14px; border: 1px solid #ddd;\"><strong>2025<\/strong><\/td>\n<td style=\"padding: 14px; border: 1px solid #ddd;\">8,887<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"padding: 14px; border: 1px solid #ddd;\"><strong>2024<\/strong><\/td>\n<td style=\"padding: 14px; border: 1px solid #ddd;\">12,324<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p style=\"font-family: 'Poppins',sans-serif; line-height: 1.6; text-align: justify;\">The drop from 12,324 to 8,887 rejected qualifiers was the result of tightening the qualifying standards by 5 minutes for all age groups under 60 years.<\/p>\n<h3 style=\"font-family: 'Poppins',sans-serif; margin-top: 24px;\"><strong>Lottery Chances: What Do 1,000 Spots Offer?<\/strong><\/h3>\n<p style=\"font-family: 'Poppins',sans-serif; line-height: 1.6; text-align: justify;\">Based on data from recent years, the chance of drawing one of the 1,000 spots is around <strong>9\u201310%<\/strong>:<\/p>\n<ul style=\"font-family: 'Poppins',sans-serif; line-height: 1.6; margin-left: 20px;\">\n<li>2025: 1,000 \/ 8,887 \u2248 <strong>11.2%<\/strong><\/li>\n<li>2024: 1,000 \/ 12,324 \u2248 <strong>8.1%<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p style=\"font-family: 'Poppins',sans-serif; line-height: 1.6; text-align: justify;\">The average of these two years gives roughly <strong>9\u201310%<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<h3 style=\"font-family: 'Poppins',sans-serif; margin-top: 24px;\"><strong>Forecast For 2027: Possible Increase In The Number Of Qualifiers<\/strong><\/h3>\n<p style=\"font-family: 'Poppins',sans-serif; line-height: 1.6; text-align: justify;\">It can be assumed that in 2027 the number of runners with a qualifying time will be higher than in 2025. If the number of qualifiers who do not make the cut-off rises to around 10\u201311 thousand, the lottery chance will drop slightly \u2014 to around <strong>9%<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-family: 'Poppins',sans-serif; line-height: 1.6; text-align: justify;\">The new rule does not change the core of the qualification process: the fastest still get in first. However, it adds a second path for those who meet the qualifying standard but do not exceed the cut-off.<\/p>\n<div style=\"background-color: #eef3f6; border-left: 5px solid #29495e; padding: 18px 20px; margin: 32px 0; border-radius: 6px; font-family: 'Poppins',sans-serif;\"><a style=\"color: #29495e; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline;\" href=\"https:\/\/worldmarathoner.com\/en\/category\/boston-marathon-en\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Boston Marathon Category<br \/>\n<\/a><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin: 8px 0 0 0; line-height: 1.6;\">All texts and analyses related to the Boston Marathon.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The introduction of a lottery reshapes the qualification process for the Boston Marathon 2027. Analyzing data from recent editions helps clarify how this new rule influences the actual probability of gaining entry.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":232057,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_et_pb_use_builder":"","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[49],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-232058","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-boston-marathon-en"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/worldmarathoner.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/232058","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/worldmarathoner.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/worldmarathoner.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/worldmarathoner.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/worldmarathoner.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=232058"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/worldmarathoner.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/232058\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":232062,"href":"https:\/\/worldmarathoner.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/232058\/revisions\/232062"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/worldmarathoner.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/232057"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/worldmarathoner.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=232058"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/worldmarathoner.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=232058"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/worldmarathoner.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=232058"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}